The latest report of the World Trade Organization shows that the key industry supply chain is blocked by the global goods trade

[] [Font size] [] Economic Daily Geneva News (Reporter Yang Haiquan) On November 15th, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest "Cargo Trade Barometer", global goods trade in the initial impact from neoguan pneumonia epidemic After rebound, recovery is slowing down, and the production and supply of key industries inhibits trade growth, and import demand is also cooling.

  The latest reading of the "Cargo Trade Barometer" is the baseline value 100 close to the index, indicating that the growth is in line with the recent trend. In August this year, the WTO released a record, reflecting the intensity of global trade recovery at that time and the impact of the epidemic on trade last year. The recent supply impact of global trade is the cause of the latest reading, including the intersection of port congestion caused by the surge in import demand in the first half of the year, and the production interruption of trade commodities such as automobiles and semiconductors.

  At present, the demand for trade commodities is also slowdown, and the decline in export orders further dragged the "Cargo Trade Barometer" indicator. Imported demand cooling may help mitigate the intensification of the port, but as long as container throughput remains or close to the record level, backlogs and delays are unlikely to eliminate.

  In the recent period, all the sub-items of the "Cargo Trade Barometer" declined, reflecting the general loss of the global goods trade.

The car product index has a maximum amplitude.

Due to the lack of semiconductor supply, global automotive production has been affected. The electronic product index () also decreases from the trend level below the trend level. The container transport index () and raw material index () have returned to approaching trend levels.

Only the air freight index () is firmly maintained above the trend level, because the shipper is seeking to replace the sea with air transport.

  The latest issue of "Cargo Trade Barometer" reading is generally consistent with the trade prediction of WTO revised on October 4. The prediction says that global trade in 2021 will increase by weight, higher than the% forecast of March, and will grow in 2022.

The forecast also shows that as commodity trade is close to the trend of the epidemic, the quarterly trade growth in the second half of 2021 will slow down.

  The prospects of the world trade continue to be masked by considerable downlink, including regional differences, service trade continuous and weakness, and lagging vaccination rates, especially in poor countries.

New crown pneumonia epidemic is still the biggest threat to trade prospects, because new epidemic is easy to destroy recovery.

(Editor: Feng Hu).